Inflation Eases to 9.6% in October: PBS

KARACHI (News Desk): Pakistan’s headline inflation slowed to 9.6% year-on-year in October 2026, compared to 10.3% in September, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.

A year earlier, in October 2025, inflation had stood at 6.2%.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.1% in October, lower than the 1.3% increase recorded in September and 1.7% in October last year.

Urban inflation eased to 9.5% YoY in October from 10.1% in September. In October 2025, it was 6.0%. Month-on-month, urban CPI increased 0.8%, against 1.3% in the previous month and 1.4% a year ago.

Rural inflation also moderated to 9.8% YoY from 10.5% in September, though higher than 6.6% in October last year. On a monthly basis, rural CPI rose 1.5%, compared to 1.2% in September and 2.1% in October 2025.

For the first four months of FY27 (July-October), average inflation was recorded at 10.05%, sharply higher than 4.79% in the same period of last fiscal year.

Government outlook:

The Finance Ministry had earlier projected October inflation in the range of 9.5% to 10.5%, citing elevated energy and food prices in line with global trends. In its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October 2026, the ministry said the subsequent inflation path would remain sensitive to international energy prices, food supplies and base effects, while economic recovery in FY27 would be supported by improving crop prospects, manufacturing, construction activity and external earnings.

Market expectations:

Brokerage houses had also forecast easing inflation around 9% to 9.5%. Topline Securities had estimated October CPI at 9.0-9.5% YoY, versus 10.26% in September and 6.25% last year, warning that average inflation could exceed 9% in FY27 if oil prices stay at $100-110 per barrel, higher than its earlier forecast of 8.5-9%.

Insight Securities had projected October inflation at 9.3%, compared to 10.3% in September and 6.2% a year earlier, noting that rising fuel and electricity costs would keep price pressures elevated and complicate the central bank’s policy outlook.