PSX rebounds 4.5% weekly on US Election, oil price cues

KARACHI (Staff Report): The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a strong bullish trend last week, rebounding sharply on positive global cues after the Democrats’ victory in the US mid-term elections and a steep fall in international crude oil prices.

According to PSX data, the benchmark KSE-100 Index closed at 173,887 points, up by 7,477 points or 4.5 percent week-on-week (WoW) from 166,409 points in the previous week.

During the week, the KSE-100 touched a high of 176,604 points and a low of 165,585 points, showing high volatility but overall strong buying interest.

The bullish momentum added Rs520.26 billion to investors’ wealth. Market capitalization increased by 2.8 percent WoW to Rs18,909 billion from the previous week’s level. In dollar terms, market capitalization stood at $68 billion, up 2.9 percent WoW.

Trading activity also improved significantly. Average daily traded volume surged by 43 percent WoW to 856 million shares, while average daily traded value rose by 24 percent WoW to $103 million, or 1,480 million shares on November 6 alone.

Sector-wise, Banks remained the top positive contributor, adding 2,659 points to the index, followed by Cement with 1,266 points, Fertilizer with 988 points, Power Generation with 545 points and Investment Banks with 535 points.

On the other hand, Refinery sector dragged the index down by 238 points, followed by Real Estate, Insurance, Paper & Board and Leasing Companies with minor negative contributions.

Scrip-wise, Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) contributed the most positively with 613 points, followed by Lucky Cement (LUCK) with 564 points, Engro Holdings (ENGROH) with 519 points, United Bank Limited (UBL) with 491 points and Meezan Bank (MEBL) with 480 points.

Negative scrip-wise contributions came from Attock Refinery (ATRL) which dragged 163 points, Cnergyico (CNERGY) 76 points, Nestle, Pakistan Oilfields (POL) and Thalha Chemical (THCCL).

Among KSE-100 gainers, Pak Suzuki Electric Limited (PSEL) led with 26.7 percent gain, followed by Pioneer Cement (PIOC) and D.G. Khan Cement (DGKC) both up 12.5 percent, Ghani Global Glass (GAL) up 11.4 percent and Fauji Cement (FCCL) up 11 percent.

Major losers in the KSE-100 included Cnergyico with 11.3 percent decline and Attock Refinery with 9.8 percent fall, amid negative refinery cracks and levy concerns. Other losers were IMAGE with 4.1 percent, THCCL with 3.4 percent and NESTLE with 2.1 percent.

Volume leaders during the week included CNERGY with average volume of 75.8 million shares closing at Rs12.1, followed by Pak American Fertilizer (PASL) 68.2 million, TPL Properties (TPLP) 40.2 million, TPL Insurance (TISPL) 34 million and K-Electric (KEL) 32 million shares.

According to Arif Habib Limited Research , several positive developments on the macroeconomic front supported the sentiment. CPI inflation for October 2026 eased to 9.6 percent YoY compared to 10.3 percent in September 2026.

The Government of Pakistan raised a total of Rs385.6 billion against a target of Rs350 billion in the T-bills auction. Overall yields dropped by 0.4 bps to 12 bps, with most participation observed in the 3-year tenor of around Rs165.3 billion.

Pakistan’s trade deficit stood at $3.9 billion in October 2026 as per Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, with exports rising 2.8 percent YoY (+0.2 percent MoM) to $2.9 billion, while imports increased 11.8 percent YoY (+5.7 percent MoM) to $6.8 billion.

Urea offtake for October 2026 increased 39 percent YoY to 487,000 tons. Agritech Limited led growth with sales up 87 percent YoY to 36,000 tons, followed by FFC up 54 percent YoY to 257,000 tons and Fatima up 30 percent YoY to 56,000 tons, while EFERT sales rose 13 percent YoY to 138,000 tons.

Oil production rebounded 8.9 percent WoW to 64.7k bopd, mainly due to revival in flows from northern fields, while gas production decreased slightly by 0.4 percent WoW to 3,063 mmcfd, driven by lower production mainly from Mari field.

In the energy pricing front, the government decreased MS (petrol) price by 6.7 percent WoW from Rs377.91/litre to Rs352.59/litre and HSD (diesel) price by 4.6 percent WoW from Rs400.67/litre to Rs382.25/litre, driven entirely by a drop in ex-refinery prices due to falling global oil prices.

Refinery upliftment surged 9.7 percent YoY to 1,119k tons in October 2026, driven by growth in HSD and FO sales. On a MoM basis, it improved by 3.2 percent.

OMC sales declined in October 2026, with total energy product sales declining 1 percent YoY to 1.48mn tons (ex-FO: -5.9 percent YoY), driven by HSD (-7.3 percent YoY) and MS (-2.3 percent YoY) amid higher fuel prices earlier.

The Pakistani Rupee appreciated marginally by 0.03 percent, closing at PKR 276.75/USD versus 276.85 previously.

Going forward, analysts at Arif Habib Limited expect market direction to remain sensitive to developments in US-Iran talks and the deviation of oil prices, while the MSCI review scheduled for November 11, 2026 will also be key.

The KSE-100 Index is currently trading at a P/E of 7.3x offering a dividend yield of 6.8 percent.

Top picks of the brokerage include OGDC, PPL, FFC, LUCK, MLCF, NBP, AKBL, NPL, ENGROH, PSO, DGKC and SAZEW.